2026年06月08日,华泰证券(601688)发表了一篇基金行业的研究报告,报告指出,市场分化严重,建议减持热门股,关注大盘可转债。
报告摘要如下:
Core viewpoints
The broader equity market remains sharply bifurcated. With crowding in the AI trade intensifying and spillover risks looming from Friday’s US equity selloff, the current market is highly unforgiving, characterized by a razor-thin margin of error and a volatile trading environment. This setup may be difficult to change in the near term. We therefore recommend further reducing exposure to crowded trades, rotating toward areas with independent sector momentum, and maintaining trading flexibility. If position unwinding triggers a sharp sell-off, investors may reload quality names that are caught in the collateral damage. For convertible bonds, the recent Strategy(MSTR) of not adding positions and rotating toward large-cap convertibles has worked well. In terms of Strategy(MSTR), we recommend no major near-term adjustment to convertible bond positions, with a continued focus on structural opportunities. For allocation, we continue to tilt toward heavyweight names below RMB120, such as banks and hog-farming names. For trading, focus on new convertibles, technology names with long redemption cooling-off periods, and equity-like names with near-zero premiums.
CB Strategy(MSTR): hold position steady; tilt toward heavyweights
Our recent recommendation to avoid adding positions, control exposure, and rotate toward large-cap convertibles to manage volatility has worked well. Risk factors in the June convertible bond market have not fully played out, and convertible performance remains clearly constrained. The continued correction in micro-cap style in equities has also had a clear impact on convertible underlying equities. However, supply-demand support for convertibles remains strong. Last Thursday and Friday, convertible bond ETFs continued to see large net inflows, and ETFs’ share of the overall market reached another record high. Overall, we recommend no major near-term adjustment to positions. Structurally, investors should further tilt toward large-cap heavyweight names, with a focus on heavyweight names priced below RMB120. This approach can better manage near-term volatility and avoid disruption from micro-cap style. It may also benefit from modest recovery opportunities driven by ETF inflows. For trading names, focus on recently listed bonds, technology names with long redemption cooling-off periods, or individual bonds with early redemption and zero premium.
Risks: underlying equities fall short of our expectations; bond fund redemptions bring liquidity shocks; and individual bonds face delisting or credit risk.
