2026年06月04日，华泰证券（601688）发表了一篇基金行业的研究报告，报告指出，券商行业进入可持续发展阶段，估值低，具备国际扩张、股权投资及并购重组机会。
报告摘要如下：
Brokerage sector share performance has diverged from fundamentals so far this year. As of May 22, the Shanghai Composite Index had gained 3.6% since the beginning of the year, and the brokerage index had fallen 14.4%. We believe the divergence was affected by funding conditions and policy factors, among other issues. In our view, the sector has entered a sound development stage characterized by sustainable earnings growth. Meanwhile, pressure from funding conditions is easing at the margin, with brokerage ETFs seeing continued net inflows. Policy remains supportive of the market and has strengthened the foundation for the industry. Given low valuation and low positioning, we recommend capitalizing on this strategic allocation opportunity, which we believe is underpinned by three themes: International（IGIC） expansion, equity investment, and M&A restructuring.
Strategic allocation opportunity at the bottom
In the medium to long term, the brokerage industry has entered a sound stage of development. Earnings growth has high visibility and strong sustainability. We estimate industry ROE in 2026 at 6.9%, 7.9%, and 9.0% under our bear case, base case, and bull case scenarios, respectively. As the market rebalances and funding conditions gradually Turn（TTRX）, the sector has meaningful runway for re-rating. As of May 22, the A-share brokerage index traded at only 1.23x P/B, at the 7th percentile since 2014. We believe the brokerage sector’s current valuation is low, with earnings further limiting its downside. On the upside, we see opportunities for valuation expansion and we recommend capitalizing on the strategic allocation opportunity. We favor: 1) quality leaders with low valuations that take the lead in International（IGIC） expansion, notably CITIC Securities A/H, Guotai Haitong A/H, and CICC H; 2) companies with advantages in equity investment in technology innovation-related areas, such as China Merchants（MBIN） Securities A/H; 3) potential opportunities from regional M&A restructuring, such as Orient Securities A/H.
Risks: Policy support and/or capital market performance falling short of our expectations.
