2026年06月01日,华泰证券(601688)发表了一篇基金行业的研究报告,报告指出,市场进入整固期,需等待中期业绩验证后再行布局。
报告摘要如下:
Core vies
The recent structural rally appears increasingly overstretched. Together with the upcoming large IPOs and extreme sentiment signals, this has LED(884095) to a period of corrections. However, we do not think the market has started to invalidate the underlying logic. The basic conditions for a bull market remain largely in place, but the margin for error has fallen sharply. Last week, we advised investors to trim exposure to technology growth stocks, increase allocation to low-priced dividend names, and KEEP(HK3650) their powder dry to await fundamental validation from interim results before accumulating oversold quality tech names. For CBs, investors currently face three pressures: weak equities, high valuations, and frequent rating adjustments. Fortunately, supply and demand dynamic is still supportive. Over the past several weeks, we have repeatedly advised against further position additions. We also favor switching into large-cap CBs to manage volatility, which has worked well. We remain focused on heavyweight names such as banks that saw larger earlier corrections. Use relatively low-priced portfolio holdings to manage market uncertainty.
Equity: lower margin for error; KEEP(HK3650) powder dry for future opportunities
The earlier market polarization has caused near-term headwinds. It should still take some time for crowded positions to unwind. June is usually a seasonally weak month for A-shares, as liquidity is usually tight, and interim results are approaching as a key check point. As a result, the market may lack clear catalysts to go long in the short term. We think the logic of the structural bull market has not been undermined, but the margin for error has fallen sharply. The market will likely enter a consolidation period. We recommend: 1) trim exposure to technology growth stocks, especially high-valuation and crowded semiconductor and AI application names, and only KEEP(HK3650) leaders with deliverable earnings; 2) moderately increase allocation to low-valuation dividend names and sectors with independent momentum. Utilities and coal provide a margin of safety. Increase holdings in grid equipment and healthcare, which have sector logic independent of the AI theme; 3) KEEP(HK3650) powder dry and await validation from the interim results. This should allow investors to position in oversold AI technology names when appropriate.
CB Strategy(MSTR): downside protection via low-priced names
Over the past several weeks, we have repeatedly advised against further position additions. We also suggested switching into large-cap CBs to manage volatility, which has worked well. In the short term, weak equities and persistently high CB valuations remain headwinds. The market still needs to price in credit risk disruptions in June. In addition, time value erosion is gradually being priced in by the market. For many names, the valuation drawdown in CBs alone has already become quite obvious. Fortunately, supply and demand dynamic is still supportive. CB ETFs have still recorded considerable inflows recently. We think the near-term focus should be on adjusting portfolio structure. Investors can gradually rotate from high-priced names in portfolios into heavyweight names such as banks that saw larger earlier corrections. This allows portfolios to use relatively low-priced holdings to manage market risk and uncertainty. Banks and hog-framing names are better short-term choices. For PV names, investors need to watch potential headwinds on rating. For equity-like names, prioritize those with announced redemptions and premium rates already close to zero.
Risks: underperformance of underlying stocks; liquidity shock from bond fund redemptions; delisting of individual bonds or credit default
