2026年05月26日，华泰证券（601688）发表了一篇基金行业的研究报告，报告指出，市场受短期事件冲击，但长期仍看好消费（883434）领域复苏及科技领军企业的估值重塑。
报告摘要如下：
Our core views
Last week,H-shares continued to fluctuate.Short-term drivers included ahawkish tone in the new Fed Chair's inauguration remarks,tightening overseas investment regulations,and renewed geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East over the weekend.Overall,we see these factors as primarily sentiment and event-driven shocks.In the near term,they may weigh on the relative performance of HK local financial stocks and non-Stock Connect names amid expectations of lower market activity and higher rates.However,we believe these impacts could be rapidly priced in.Looking forward,the key catalysts for 3Q26 will center on earnings recovery(particularly in broad consumer sectors)and valuation re-rating(driven by AI progress at tech leaders).Based on earnings and valuations,we recommend abalanced portfolio:1)sectors with accelerating momentum such as new Energy（ELPC）,machinery,and semiconductors;and 2)undervalued inflection-driven plays in food&beverage and consumer services.
The divergence between AI software and hardware continued
As of 25 May 2026,for non-financial HK-listed companies,the Bloomberg consensus forecasts for their next-12-month earnings(hereafter referred to as earnings forecasts)have remained largely flat over the past four weeks,with amodest 0.5%downward revision in the past week.Most ETF-tied sectors saw downward revisions.The largest cuts came in automobile(primarily due to the Lithium（LAC） mining segment's softness)and Hang Seng Tech Index(mainly pressured by internet names,with increased downward revisions following tech giants’1Q26 results).On apositive note,semiconductor/hardware equipment have shown relatively strong upward revisions(+3.1/+2.6%over the past week).That said,the breadth of upgrades in hardware equipment remained narrow,with revisions heavily concentrated in leading names.
Liquidity:foreign capital inflows accelerated
As of last Wednesday(20 May),according to EPFR data,foreign capital posted anet inflow of USD1,350mn into H-shares(compared with anet inflow of USD520mn the week before),comprising anet outflow of USD170mn from active foreign funds and anet inflow of USD1,520mn from passive foreign funds.In the H-share market,the latest short-selling turnover ratio/holding ratio climbed by 0.8/0.03pp to 12.6/2.51%,with the latter reaching another new high.Last week,southbound funds recorded anet outflow of HKD13.5bn from H-shares,vs anet inflow of HKD9.3bn the week before.Sectors such as electronics,telecommunications,petroleum&petrochemicals,banks,and home appliances ranked among the top in terms of inflows.The progress in share repurchases accelerated notably.The number of repurchase cases rebounded by 47 WoW to 329,and the repurchase amount increased from HKD76.8bn to HKD81.1bn.
Risks:Geopolitical fluctuations;policy support falling short of our expectations.
