2026年05月18日，华泰证券（601688）发表了一篇基金行业的研究报告，报告指出，香港市场回暖需消化外部压力，聚焦现金流稳定与行业趋势明确的投资机会。
报告摘要如下：
Core views
The Hong Kong market continues to navigate two major external overhangs.On the one（STKS） hand,the impact of the crude oil supply shock is nearing atipping point and is about to materialize in full force.On the other hand,inflation expectations are pushing up global government bond yields,while monetary policy has limited ability to respond to supply shocks.Internally,Southbound positions have yet to normalize.Since last October,Southbound positions in the Hang Seng TECH Index have increased rather than declined.Although ETF inflows slowed in April,the extreme underweight ratio remained high.Since April,the market has shown several characteristics:non-Southbound Stock Connect stocks have performed better,the market has performed better when Southbound Stock Connect was closed,and ADRs have outperformed Hong Kong shares.These may all indicate that Southbound positions have not yet normalized,as we discussed in HSTI Experiencing Sustained Corrections:What Is Next?(published on 13 March 2026).The market is currently bottoming,but asustained rebound at the index-level requires both positioning and catalysts,such as stronger consumption and AI.Against this backdrop,we recommend focusing on earnings certainty to counter valuation and liquidity headwinds,and positioning along two main themes:cash-flow stability and industry-trend visibility.On the cash-flow side,we recommend focusing on resource names such as oil and gas,coal,and aluminum,as well as low volatility names with high dividend yield.On the industry side,the AI chain remains the medium-term theme,but as near-term overseas disruptions intensify,investors may consider taking moderate profit on technology sectors with sizable unrealized gains and wait for better accumulation opportunities.
Allocation:certainty in focus w.valuation&liquidity overhang
The First（FFBC） category is cash-flow certainty.This includes resource names with strong cash flow but limited capex pressure,such as oil and gas,coal,and aluminum;low-volatility names with high dividend yield,such as some Hong Kong local names;and consumer staples such as dairy products and condiments,which are near the bottom of their business cycles with institutional positioning gradually unwinding.At the current stage,the First（FFBC） two type of cash-flow certainty are the focus.The second category is industry-trend certainty.The AI chain remains the area with the strongest momentum.From amedium-term Perspective（CATX）,we still recommend overweighting semiconductors,including memory,power equipment leaders,and internet leaders,which are still on the left side of the cycle.From ashort-term Perspective（CATX）,however,risks from rising crowding in US technology stocks and higher US Treasury yields are emerging.We continue to recommend taking moderate profit on semiconductor and other sectors with sizable unrealized gains,while waiting for accumulation opportunities.
