2026年05月11日，华泰证券（601688）发表了一篇基金行业的研究报告，报告指出，市场进入叙事驱动阶段，建议保持中性仓位并优化投资组合。
报告摘要如下：
Our core views
Post the May Day holiday,the A-share market delivered adecent opening.However,the market has since entered an earnings vacuum.Moving forward,investors would do well to closely watch April macroeconomic data,Donald Trump's potential visit to China,tail risks in the Middle East,and the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting.We believe the market is about to enter anarrative-driven phase when indices are likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels.Therefore,we advise investors to continue structural adjustments and risk management,pay more heed to isolated high-growth sectors backed by solid earnings,and moderately increase exposure to high-dividend names to navigate volatility.Regarding convertible bonds(CBs),the post-holiday rally slightly exceeded our expectations,backed by advancing underlying equities.However,the profit/loss ratio remains clearly weak and the win rate is constrained as the stock market is likely to consolidate at high levels.The narrative of tight CB supply is losing traction,evidenced by accelerating new issuances and persistent ETF share outflows.Therefore,we reiterate our Strategy（MSTR） of maintaining relatively neutral exposure,and advise investors to shift portfolios towards heavyweight names while guarding against redemption risks and credit challenges for weak-profile issuers.
Maintain neutral exposure to CBs and fine-tune the portfolio mix
Following the holiday,CBs moved upward alongside their underlying equities,showcasing strong upside and slightly exceeding our expectations.However,the current market has not yet presented major directional opportunities.We advise investors to maintain aneutral stance and fine-tune their portfolio mix.1)For CBs,the profit/loss ratio is notably weak.As the stock market could enter consolidation at elevated levels,the win rate for convertible bonds is equally limited.2)Supply-demand narratives are weakening.In April,the number and pace of CB filings accelerated significantly while ETF share outflows continued.3)The market offers alimited number of strong AI-chain names.For individual bonds,forced redemption risks have yet to fully materialize.Furthermore,investors still need to guard against credit risk issues during May and June.We advise investors to maintain arelatively neutral stance,optimize their portfolio mixes,and avoid low-quality bonds.In the short term,low-premium bonds and heavyweight bonds remain the optimal choices.Investors can also track newly issued bonds that have experienced price pullbacks.
